Edwin Moses

If you want to have high rates of winning in casino sites like Casinochap and sports bets, then it will be imperative to plan a betting strategy along with positive expected value. This is pretty much like your estimate of average win you can secure in a bet. The question is, how much capital you have to risk in every bet to be able to achieve biggest possible profits?

Boosting Your Winning Potential

A vital concept that must not be forgotten is the fact that while odds and probabilities are both related and seem the same, they are actually not totally similar subject. This is because of the reason that probabilities are representing the likelihood of something to happen.

Probabilities are computed by dividing the number of desired results by total number of potential outcomes. On the other hand, when you say odds, this is representing the ratio of the wanted results towards the unwanted outcomes.

Basically, there are three major ways on how to express odds and these are the:

1. Moneyline
2. Fractional and;
3. Decimal

It doesn’t matter what format of odds you are using, these types are all representing the same thing. Truth is, it is simple to convert one form to the other.

Aside from governing how the sports betting world works, odds play a critical role in assisting bettors to make a smart decision whether a bet is worth it or not. All odds are carrying implied probability which is then compared to real probabilities in an effort to determine whether the wager has a positive or negative value. Rule of thumb here is, in the gambling world, make bets only if you have positive value.

Calculating Your Winning Rate

Given the fact that you have an idea about probability, let us look at odds offered on this example. The odds for tails are +260 and -300 for heads. Now, we have to calculate its implied probability on both lines offered and then, determine which bet has more value.

First, solve for the implied probability for heads which can be done by following the example below:

• (100/-300) + 1 = 1.33

After that, take the decimal odd and convert it to percentage which makes it:

• 1/1.33 = 0.7518
• 7518 X 100 = 75.18%

Meaning to say, implied odds have higher percentage than the actual 50 percent probability. Now let’s solve for tails:

• (260/100) + 1 = 3.6
• 1/3.6 = 0.2778
• 2778 X 100 = 27.78 %

In such case, the probability that the tails will land is outweighed the implied probability which makes it a high-value bet.

While bookies keep improving their methods for soccer prediction and avoid paying players out, still there are holes in the predictions they made. The only question here is, how? Believe it or not, there are a couple of ways that’ll help you beat bookmakers. One way of doing it is by analyzing non-measurable match data and the other way is by improving statistical prediction models that are used by the bookies themselves.

What Factors to be Considered in making Profitable Bets?

In the first method discussed, it will require you to do some analysis of the match priority or type which isn’t seen in statistical models. Among the popular factors that may possibly influence the soccer match game are:

• Match type – this could either be a national/international league, a cup or simply, a friendly game. However, you can make most profit for cup finals in which media chooses their favorites and punters who have gathered the most info can yield profits by betting on teams that are underdog.
• Match priority – each and every single team needs to define their priority for the upcoming matches for the sole reason that their resources are limited. European national cups are actually a great example for top teams that have low priority games.
• Match time – this factor may be overlooked often but plays an important role This is due to the reason that there’s no accurate soccer prediction.
• Player’s condition – in this regard, it consists of anything related to the transfers, illnesses and injuries, particularly for key players. Odds set by the bookmakers are normally calculated before such information becomes available.

There are several other factors that should be taken into account too like team managers, match attendance, pitch conditions and of course, chance. Studying and analyzing these pieces of information may be impractical and time consuming. So the better thing to do is to look at the prediction models set by bookies.

Checking out these prediction models is fairly easy as it is based on the average statistics. Low odds are normally corresponding with teams that have higher table positions and vice versa. It is pretty clear that the model’s accuracy changes when the team’s skill changed. Therefore, by minding about the team skill dynamics, you will be able to boost your profits by placing bets on highly priced underdog teams.

A Foundation has been Built

While playing in Bola Tangkas online, these strategies may not be applicable because it’s the website that sets the odds for you, still it is a good idea to have knowledge of the aforementioned aspects. At least, you have basis on every bet you make and minimize potential losses.