Is Your Bet Worth it?

If you want to have high rates of winning in casino sites like Casinochap and sports bets, then it will be imperative to plan a betting strategy along with positive expected value. This is pretty much like your estimate of average win you can secure in a bet. The question is, how much capital you have to risk in every bet to be able to achieve biggest possible profits?

Boosting Your Winning Potential

A vital concept that must not be forgotten is the fact that while odds and probabilities are both related and seem the same, they are actually not totally similar subject. This is because of the reason that probabilities are representing the likelihood of something to happen.

Probabilities are computed by dividing the number of desired results by total number of potential outcomes. On the other hand, when you say odds, this is representing the ratio of the wanted results towards the unwanted outcomes.

Basically, there are three major ways on how to express odds and these are the:

  1. Moneyline
  2. Fractional and;
  3. Decimal

It doesn’t matter what format of odds you are using, these types are all representing the same thing. Truth is, it is simple to convert one form to the other.

Aside from governing how the sports betting world works, odds play a critical role in assisting bettors to make a smart decision whether a bet is worth it or not. All odds are carrying implied probability which is then compared to real probabilities in an effort to determine whether the wager has a positive or negative value. Rule of thumb here is, in the gambling world, make bets only if you have positive value.

Calculating Your Winning Rate

Given the fact that you have an idea about probability, let us look at odds offered on this example. The odds for tails are +260 and -300 for heads. Now, we have to calculate its implied probability on both lines offered and then, determine which bet has more value.

First, solve for the implied probability for heads which can be done by following the example below:

  • (100/-300) + 1 = 1.33

After that, take the decimal odd and convert it to percentage which makes it:

  • 1/1.33 = 0.7518
  • 7518 X 100 = 75.18%

Meaning to say, implied odds have higher percentage than the actual 50 percent probability. Now let’s solve for tails:

  • (260/100) + 1 = 3.6
  • 1/3.6 = 0.2778
  • 2778 X 100 = 27.78 %

In such case, the probability that the tails will land is outweighed the implied probability which makes it a high-value bet.

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